The moment we’ve all been waiting on is finally here. The Ole Miss Rebels (8-1) will host the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) at Vaught Hemingway Stadium on Saturday. The giant elephant in the room (pun intended) is Alabama just dropped their second SEC game of the season to LSU, and their playoff hopes are all but dead (we think). What does that mean for Ole Miss? It doesn’t mean anything to us. It doesn’t matter what the standings look like if we don’t win on Saturday. Our goal remains to go 1-0 this week, which I understand is always a lofty goal when Nick Saban comes to town. Some of you may have lost a pep in your step, because Alabama isn’t coming into the game undefeated, or even with one loss, like you expected. I strongly discourage that feeling. This is still Alabama we’re talking about. Is this the best Alabama team in recent memory? Absolutely not, but the fact of the matter is that we are still nearly a 12 point underdog at home against a team loaded with NFL talent, the reigning Heinman trophy winner at quarterback, and last I checked Nick Saban was still the head ball coach. The Rebels will need to have our best game of the year thus far to have a chance to pull the upset and keep our SEC Championship, and College Football Playoff hopes alive. Yes, you heard me right, SEC Championship and National Championship hopes are still alive! You may not hear it talked about in the national media, but thats what this blog is for. I’m here to tell you those hopes are NOT over, because no-one else will. Some may tell you that it’s over because we lost to LSU, and they expect us to lose to Alabama. To that, allow me to quote the inspirational, “Bluto”, from the movie Animal House. "Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell NO!”
We needed Alabama to take down LSU last weekend in order to control our own destiny again, but that didn’t happen. Tiger Stadium was as loud as it’s ever been. The Tigers kept it close until the end, and delivered the knockout punch with a two point conversion in overtime to knock off the Tide. If you didn’t watch this game, I’m sorry. I was pulling for Alabama, for Ole Miss reasons, however as a college football fan, this was an amazing game to watch from start to finish. I was a kid in a candy shop. I mean this one had all the ingredients. High stakes, heated rivalry, star players, an electric atmosphere, and like every great movie, a great ending. What more could you ask for? Well, maybe as an Ole Miss fan, I suppose you could’ve asked that Bama squeak out the win.
The question now is, HOW does Alabama respond after that??? Their second SEC loss of the season in early November?? To be honest, I don’t know! The last time the Crimson Tide dropped two SEC regular season games in the same year was 2010!! To give some perspective, in 2010 Apple introduced the first ever iPad, Tiger Woods issued an apology for his infidelity, Jeremiah Masoli was the starting quarterback at Ole Miss, and Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, had recently celebrated his 9th birthday. The narrative has been that Alabama may slip up once, but usually that one loss turns out to be a good wake up call, and then they go on to make a National Championship run. Two losses though? What does that mean? It has left the spoiled rotten Alabama fan base speechless. Not only do they need LSU to lose, they need them to lose TWICE. It forces you to ask the question, how motivated is this team going to be on Saturday? Are they going to be able to prepare and compete with the same energy level knowing that their postseason goals are almost certainly dead? Do guys start to check out, and start thinking about their NFL careers? OR, Is this team so mad that they take their anger out on the field and show the world what happens when you discount the Crimson Tide. We’ll have to wait and find out on Saturday.
There’s been a lot of talk this week about the beginning of the end of this unprecedented Nick Saban dynasty run. My instincts are to say, “I’ve heard that before, I’ll believe it when I see it”, and carry on with my day. There is, however, some alarmingly relevant data to consider first before you totally disregard that narrative. We are accustomed to seeing this overwhelming attack of NFL players in Alabama jerseys, walk into your stadium breaking your will, and ripping apart every shred of hope you have. Dating back to last season however, you see these games, especially on the road, where Bama has not looked like the typical freight train we’ve grown accustomed to. They’ve looked like, just another good football team. A team that bleeds just like us. They lost to A&M last year, with near losses to Florida, LSU, and Auburn. This year, through nine games, they’ve lost to LSU and Tennessee with near losses to Texas and Texas A&M. To be fair, they did play for the National Championship last year, and they are still a very good team this year. They could easily have four losses already this season, however they could also just as easily be undefeated. You may think I’m getting nit picky on the near losses and that a win is a win, but It’s not though. Alabama has created such a high standard, and for them to hold that standard, a win is not just a win. There have been enough of these close games to say that maybe this isn’t a fluke anymore, and maybe it’s a trend.
I’m not going to predict the end of the Saban dynasty just yet. Forget the dynasty for a second, and let’s just focus on this game. Can Ole Miss pull off the upset? I have two very different knee jerk reactions. My first knee jerk reaction unfortunately is fear. I can’t help it! It has been engrained in me pretty much since 2007. I’ve seen it too many times. I fear that all this “The dynasty is over” talk is going to give Saban another decades supply of fuel, and that we’re about to catch the wrath of it. On the other hand, after the flashbacks end, and the fear wears off, I think, maybe this Alabama team is just a good team, but they’re not THAT special. Forget all the great teams from the past, we don’t have to play them tomorrow. We play the 2022 Alabama team. They’ve got some really good players, but hell, so do we! We don’t have to go to Bryant Denny Stadium, they come to us. We sat at home all last week getting healthy and they lost in an emotional dog fight to LSU. There is NO reason why we can’t win this game! Let's go play for FOUR quarters and see what happens!
I always try and imagine the scenario. What would have to happen for us to win the game? Sometimes, like in 2017, I can’t even paint the picture of how we would come out with a win. This year however, I can paint that picture. Before I get to the keys to victory, let me paint a what if scenerio for you. I think it's worth noting that LSU @ Arkansas is right before our game. What if Arkansas knocks off LSU at 11:00. The game will be ending around the time we leave the locker room to hit the field. Can you imagine the extra juice of knowing, that if you win, you're in first place in the SEC?!?! Just something to think about.
KEYS TO VICTORY:
1.) Run Forest, RUN!
We are nine games in and if you haven’t figured it out yet, we are really good at running the football. It is what we do and who we are. We rank 3rd in the country in rushing only behind Air Force and Army (if you count them). Coming off a BYE, I expect to have the healthiest Zach Evans we’ve had since the Auburn game to go along with a fresh Quinshon Judkins. When we are running the ball well, we are able to be ourselves. The playbook opens up, we can have 2nd down and manageable, play action becomes more dangerous, and Lane Kiffin can do what he’s best at, which is dialing up plays and keeping everyone guessing, including us.
2.) Make Bryce Young Uncomfortable
We saw LSU have tons of success with Harold Perkins and that pass rush getting after Bryce Young. It’s not all about sacks, but you have to hurry him, make him take his eyes from down field, and feel your presence. If you allow him to get comfortable in the pocket, or start to dance around and extend plays, he will beat you. He’s too good. We’ll need to find ways to make him uncomfortable, and I believe it can be done. How do we do it? I’ll leave the details for Chris Partridge to figure out.
3.) Score Touchdowns
Very insightful take that we need to score touchdowns to beat Alabama, I know. What we also know is that field goals (as if Lane would kick any) or worse, (and more likely) turnover on downs won’t do it either. We’ll need to cap off drives with 7, because while you can hope to slow down Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs, it’s arrogant and foolish to say you’ll stop them entirely.
SCORE PREDICTION:
On a cold afternoon in Vaught Hemingway Stadium that turns dark in the second half, I believe it is the rushing trio of Zach Evans, Quinshon Judkins, and Jaxson Dart that are the story line of this game. The run sets up a couple of big time pass plays, and the Rebels get the job done just enough on defense. Lane wants this win BAD for more reasons than one. I think that in order to win this game on the road, Alabama is going to need more juice than they are going to bring after their deflating loss in Death Valley. Lane Kiffin defeats his former mentor, and The REBELS will be the one’s rolling in Oxford this weekend!
ALABAMA 31
OLE MISS 35
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