JUST BEAT AUBURN

I hope that everyone enjoyed the Rebels Bye Week as much as I did. Now it’s time to set the scene for the second half of the season, try and feel out this Auburn game, and continue the unprecedented hot streak that is the Pick 5. Here we go.

Last weekend, we had clear skies and a cool breeze to pair with stress-free football. It was really nice for a change. No standing in a stadium with both hands on our heads and practicing breathing exercises in the 4th quarter. Just an easy weekend of watching football. That’s what BYE weeks are for! Not for the players or coaches, but for the fans. I compare it a lot to going on a family vacation. You’re able to get away from the grind for a little bit, kick your feet up, and hit the reset button. Maybe you’re on the beach. Your eyes are closed, a tropical drink in hand, and the sound of the waves crashing against the shore. What could be better? Then a couple of days go by, and you find yourself looking around. Your foot starts to tap a little bit, and you start to wonder what your friends are up to back home. You think of all the things you need to get done at work and how you might be getting behind. The break is nice, don’t get me wrong, but there comes a time when you’re just ready to get back to work! Well, welcome back from vacation, Rebel fans! Don’t forget your hard hat and lunch pail on the way out the door, because we’re headed to Jordan-Hare Stadium.

I don’t want to look too far ahead, because contrary to what records might tell you, we’ve got our hands full this weekend. However, I do want to take just a second to zoom out and take a peek at the second half of our season.

@ Auburn

Vs. Vanderbilt

Vs. Texas A&M

@ Georgia

Vs. ULM

@ Mississippi State

I’m concerned about three of these games, and it shouldn’t be a shock which ones they are. You could make the argument that you should always keep an eye on the Egg Bowl, but I’m not too worried about the Bullies this year. I never like going to Auburn, and while Texas A&M continues to underachieve, they’re undeniably talented and could always turn it on any given week. I shouldn’t have to tell you why I’m concerned about playing Georgia in Athens, but the Bulldogs have shown that they’re actually human this year, and while I never root for injuries, it doesn’t hurt that their best player, and arguably the country’s best player, is likely out for the rest of the regular season. I say this to say, let’s just go beat Auburn, beat Vanderbilt like a drum, and then it's ON when Texas A&M comes to Oxford. Just beat Auburn, and the sky is the limit. We don’t need to worry about what Alabama does, or LSU, or what we’re ranked in the AP polls. Don’t even think about Georgia or A&M just yet. JUST BEAT AUBURN, and it’s ON.

I know we’ve all been looking forward to this one for a while now. Just last November, Auburn fans were certain that Lane Kiffin was their next head football coach, and as recently as 2016, we were certain that Hugh Freeze would be the Rebels' head coach in the year 2040. Yet here we are. While it’s still weird seeing Hugh on the Auburn sidelines, the important question is, how do we matchup? And which Auburn team are we going to get? Do we get the team that took Georgia to the wire or the one that looked lifeless in Baton Rouge? So far, Auburn has lost to the good teams they’ve played (@Texas A&M, Georgia, and @LSU), and beaten the bad teams they’ve played (UMass, @Cal, Samford.) If you watched the game last week, it was a 3-and-a-half-hour LSU highlight film, and you might be thinking that this team is absolutely dead in the water. That was one game against a really good football team on the road though, and it has no impact on Saturday night. The last time they played at home, they had Georgia seriously worried until Brock Bowers took over in the 4th quarter, and the Bulldogs pulled away. They’re in year 1 of the Hugh Freeze era, and while they’re not where they want to be, they’re just good enough to be dangerous at home. So how would I make the case for an Auburn win? Typically, I love this spot when I’m trying to sniff out an upset. Find a team that got humiliated on the road, let everyone overreact, and then bet them the following week when they come back home. Not to mention the line is only 6.5, it seems fishy. It would be around 10 on a neutral field, but this is NOT a neutral field. We’ve seen some of the most bizarre and unexplainable things happen at Jordan-Hare, and credit to Auburn, it’s just not an easy place to win a football game. A lot of people have even compared this game to the Texas A&M game last year. Auburn had nothing to play for, yet the crowd was going absolutley bizerk, and they beat the Aggies when nobody thought they could. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but it’s Auburn. Anything can happen. So do I think we’re going to lose? I don’t. I’m just saying that there’s a bear trap in the path, and we better not step on it. So if I were to make the case for an Auburn win in short, it would be: They show up in a bounce-back spot at home, and we don’t match their energy coming off a BYE. Let’s not get confused, that’s not a prediction, but rather a concern. In the words of the late great Billy Mays, “But wait, there’s more!”

So what’s my case for an Ole Miss win? Well, your Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a BYE and should be about as healthy as we’ve been all year. We’ve got the better quarterback (by a mile), the better running backs, receivers, and maybe even defense and special teams. Unlike Auburn, we know exactly what our identity is. We’ve been battle-tested on the road. We’ve won shootouts, and we’ve won with our defense when the offense was stalling. We’ve had guys step up when others were injured, and we’ve continued to show signs of improvement each week. I imagine the coaching staff was very focused this week and is not going to allow us to overlook an SEC road game. Want to hear a fun stat? The Rebels come into this game ranked 5th in the country in sacks, racking up 22 on the year. Meanwhile, Auburn and their two quarterback system, rank 104th in sacks allowed. We know good things happen when you can make a struggling quarterback uncomfortable. Can we force a couple of turnovers? If so, the Tigers are in real trouble. We know what we’re capable of offensively, and I expect Lane Kiffin to have a good game plan to get the offense going, and get them going early. So what do I think is going to happen?

SCORE PREDICTION:

I gave you the reasons why someone might lean Auburn in this game, and I do believe they’re valid. However, I think we’re simply the better football team. I trust Jaxson Dart. I trust our defense. I trust our coaching staff to be prepared with an extra week. There’s no look ahead for next week, as we have Vandy on the horizon. I believe we are 100% focused on getting out of Auburn with a win, no matter what it takes. I think we match their energy, and I think we win the football game. It’s just that simple. Don’t overthink it.

OLE MISS 41

Auburn 23

Put your score predictions in the comments. If anyone guesses correctly, we’ll be giving out a cash (Venmo) prize and, more importantly, a shoutout in next week's blog.

PICK 5 (20-6) 76.9%

I can’t explain what’s going on. I’m just seeing the board clearly right now, and we’re on absolute FIRE. All I can do is give the famous Jordan shrug and keep shooting.

1.) Mississippi State @ Arkansas -6.5

While Arkansas is 2-5, they’re not a bad football team. Maybe one of the best 2-5 teams of all time. They haven’t played a home football game in over a month! They played Texas A&M in Dallas, @LSU, @Ole Miss, @Bama. Brutal! Finally, they come home and play a struggling Mississippi State team. I’m all over the HOGS in this one! WOOOOOOOOOO PIG SOOIE.

2.) Army @ LSU -32.5

I know this is a big number, but I don’t see Army slowing this offense down, and I have a feeling Jayden Daniels may try and get those Heisman numbers up. We might as well profit from it. Geaux Tigahs.

3.) Clemson @ Miami +3

Despite losing back-to-back weeks, I still think that this Miami team is dangerous, and they’re at home. Both teams are desperate for a win, but I think Miami wins the game outright, and I’ll take the home team with a field goal to play with.

4.) North Texas @ Tulane -20

This one is easy, you always bet Tulane during homecoming week. Yulman Stadium will be absolutely shaking! The Wave rolls.

5.) TCU @ Kansas State -6.5

This Wildcat team may have found something last week. The offense was humming with the quarterback change, and they come home to keep the momentum going, not to mention, I just don’t believe in TCU. GO CATS!

We’ll see you next week! Go Rebels, and Go to Hell Auburn!