NOTHING TO LOSE

Ladies and Gentlemen, the moment we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. YOUR Ole Miss Rebels are headed to Athens to pick a fight with the BIG and BAD Georgia Bulldogs. Yes, those Bulldogs. The #1-ranked, back-to-back National Champs. The Bulldogs that haven’t lost in Athens since October of 2019! Playing under the lights and between the hedges is a daunting task for anyone. So, do the Rebels have a chance to pull off the upset? Pull up a chair, and let’s talk it out. I’ll quickly recap last week, and then we’ll paint the path to victory. Don’t worry, as always, we will continue to deliver winners as well, as The Pick 5 is coming off its 10th winning week in a row and is hitting at an unprecedented 76% on the year! Are you Ready?!?

Last week we absolutely dominated the Aggies in the first half, but because of a touchdown called back for holding, followed by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, we went from being up 21-0 to being up 14-7 in a matter of seconds. A massive point swing! The Aggies found their stride in the second half, and once again, the game was a little too close for comfort at the end. However, despite never making it easy on ourselves, the Rebels continue to find different ways to win. This time, it was a blocked field goal that sealed the deal, so don’t tell me Special Teams don’t matter! Lane Kiffin has coined this year's team “The Cardiac Kids” due to all these stressful 4th quarter finishes. So, the question becomes, "Can the Cardiac Kids go on the road and knock off the Dawgs?" That’s a loaded question, but the short answer is, Hell yeah, we can!

Unfortunately, barring an Alabama loss to Kentucky AND Auburn, it doesn’t look like the Rebels are going to Atlanta this year for the SEC Championship no matter what we do in Athens. With a weak schedule remaining after this, our ceiling is 11-1 and our floor is, all but likely, 10-2. Now obviously, we want to win this game for a million different reasons, but in a situation where nobody expects us to win, and we don’t control our own destiny, it poses the question, "What the hell do we have to lose?!" This is why, in Lane’s interview on SportsCenter this week, he talked about playing with “house money.” He was also quoted by ESPN saying, “As I’ve looked back at the two road trips like this with elite teams, the two times we went to Alabama, the players could feel me get uptight, and we played that way. I don’t feel like that this week.” I love this quote! We did play uptight in those games, and this game doesn’t feel that way at all. The vibe of this game is completely different. We’re walking into the #1 team’s building without an ounce of pressure and looking to create some chaos. Let’s go have some fun with it, give them everything we’ve got, and see what the hell happens! Georgia, on the other hand, has some real pressure on their hands. They’re expected to win this game. They’re the back-to-back champs, and they’re favored by two scores at home. We’ve seen them get threatened by Auburn and Missouri this year already, and if they lose to us on Saturday, all of a sudden they’ll have to go to Neyland Stadium next week in what becomes a do-or-die situation for them. That’s some pressure!

One thing you have to remind yourself is that while you can call Georgia the back-to-back champs, most of those guys are in the NFL, and the Rebels will be the best team that THIS team has played all year. This isn’t the Georgia team from 2021 that is head and shoulders better than everyone else, and deep down, they know it. They may be the best, but it’s not head and shoulders anymore. Jaxson Dart and company will be playing loose and will be in full “Us against the World" mentality. Sounds pretty dangerous to me. More dangerous than a Will Laughlin led Decatur Red Raider offense, and for those who may not know, that’s DANGEROUS! While Georgia is playing with some expectations, there’s a lot more that goes into taking down the Dawgs than just playing with house money. We’ve got to play the game and execute at a high level for any of it to matter. So how does that happen? Glad you asked.

The plain and simple facts are that the Rebels will have to play a damn near perfect game to give ourselves a chance in such a hostile environment. Georgia is thought of as highly as they are for good reason. They rank in the top ten in just about every statistic you can think of, and they simply don’t make many mistakes. I mentioned all those former Bulldogs in the NFL, but there’s plenty of top talent on this team too. Carson Beck has been, somewhat quietly, one of the best quarterbacks in the country this year, and you can always count on Kirby Smart to have his defense swarming. With that being said, Auburn had this team on the ropes earlier in the year, and just last week, Missouri had Georgia within striking distance in the 4th quarter. Mizzou had the ball down 6 and driving with less than 8 minutes to go. They did so many things right to get to that point, and then it happened. They threw an interception to a Georgia lineman, and just like that, boom, they’re finished. Game over. The Bulldogs tacked on another field goal, stretching the lead to two scores, and suffocated the life out of Missouri like a Boa Constrictor. It can happen that fast against this team. Three and a half quarters of good football all down the drain in one play. While the Rebels have done a great job in ball security all year, it only takes one untimely giveaway, and you’re underwater gasping for air. In addition, Ole Miss has been guilty of playing great first halves, a flat 3rd quarter, and then a great 4th quarter. That’s been good enough to find ourselves 8-1, but when was it not good enough? On the road in Tuscaloosa. Remember the one pick in that game that all but ended it? Similar story here. We can’t afford to have that flat quarter or that one big mistake. It has to be a complete and mistake-free game! Easy enough, right?

What else has to happen? Let’s talk about defense for a second. Can we stop their run attack? Can we get enough pressure on Carson Beck to make him uncomfortable? I’m not saying we’re going to shut this team down completely, but can we be opportunistic and win on third downs? Can we force this team to kick some redzone field goals? I think that’s reasonable. In the last few games, we’ve dropped some interceptions that hit us in the hands. Is it crazy to say that this may be the game that we catch one of those balls? I don’t think it is. We need to do just enough to keep our offense in the game to have a chance to go win it at the end. I don’t want to get too greedy, but we probably need a turnover to happen in there somewhere.

Offensively, we know that Jaxson Dart, Tre Harris, Jordan Wilkins, and Dayton Wade have been dominant through the air this year. We also know that Lane always talks about packing your running game and defense on the road. We mentioned what we need out of the defense, how about the running game? Well, we’ve got the best running back in the country, in my opinion, and he’s paired with a speed demon in Ulysses Bentley. Having Caden Prieskorn healthy at tight end has made all the difference in the world for the team's success on the ground. Yet, the X factor this weekend may be Jaxson Dart’s legs. Auburn’s Payton Thorne had over 100 yards rushing against Georgia earlier in the year and gave them fits. Is that something that we can replicate? I believe so! At the end of the day though, they've got good players, and so do we. I'm not going to try to tell Lane Kiffin how to dissect this Georgia defense. I’m just going to sit my ass in the bleachers and trust that he’ll have the game plan that gives us the best chance to win.

SCORE PREDICTION:

I’ve got a feeling that can't really be explained. It doesn't have much to do with X’s and O’s, one-on-one matchups, or any kind of inside scoop. It’s like when an animal knows a storm is coming. How do they know? They just feel it. Georgia may go on to win the SEC and National Championship, but it won’t be a perfect season. Lane Kiffin gets the biggest win of his career in Athens this weekend! Book it!

Ole Miss 31

Georgia 30

PICK 5: (31-10) 76%

1.) Ole Miss +11 @ Georgia

For the first time since the Tulane game, the Rebs are back in the Pick 5. Eleven Points??? Really? It’s too many. I’m hitting +11, sprinkling the money line, and you should too.

2.) Miami +14 @ Florida State

You know I love my Hurricanes. I’ve kept a close eye on them all year. They had a disappointing outing for us last weekend, but I know this team. This is where they bounce back for an in-state rivalry game. I think they may win the game outright, but I will certainly take two touchdowns if you’ll give them to me.

3.) Michigan @ Penn State +4

Happy Valley is about to be SHAKING. Are we sure Michigan is 100% focused right now? Are we even sure that they’re as great as everyone says? Who have they played? Nittany Lions plus the four, and sprinkle the moneyline.

4.) USC @ Oregon -15.5

There’s no scent of upset here. This smells like a bloodbath in Eugene. I don’t see any heart out of this USC team. I think Oregon humiliates them at home, and 15.5 points isn’t enough.

5.) Oklahoma State @ UCF +2.5

Obviously, 2.5 isn’t a ton of points here, but this smells fishy to me. Oklahoma State is on a 5 game winning streak coming off a win against Oklahoma, yet they’re only favored by 2.5? Hmmmmm. Give me Gus Malzahn and our old pal JRP to pull the slight upset at home!

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