Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls, the moment we’ve ALL been waiting for. Your Ole Miss Rebels are going into Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the BIG and BAD Alabama Crimson Tide. Games like this don’t need much introduction. It’s the BAMA game. What else do I need to say? Do I need to tell you how bad Lane wants this? You know he does. Do I need to tell you what a win like this would do for Jaxson Dart? His biggest win now is over Kentucky, so yes, he could use it. Do I dare even mention what a win would do for the LSU game next weekend? NO! I wouldn’t dare go there, or even dream to think about it! What I will say is this. Remember when we were all 8 years old? We were in the grove, our Eli Manning jerseys on, throwing the football around in the front yard of the Alumni House. We all had the same dream. Even Jaxson Dart, who was born in Kaysville, Utah. We didn’t dream of beating Arkansas or South Carolina. We dreamed of one day leading the Ole Miss Rebels into Bryant-Denny Stadium and nobody believing in us. We dreamed of the roar of 100,000 fans as we scored the game winning touchdown. Similar to the 3, 2, 1 driveway basketball shot, this was the, “35, 30, 25, 20… he’s gonna take it to the house! Touchdown Rebels! Ole Miss takes down Alabama!” The dream worked out for some of us, like Chad Kelly, and is still alive for our man, Jaxson Dart. For the rest of us, all we can do is start a blog and write about that dream. The bottom line is that this is what SEC football is all about. We don’t play 162 games, like baseball. We don’t play each team in our division twice. You get 12 games a year, and much fewer of this magnitude. These are the games that cement your name into greatness forever. Senquez Golson with the interception to end it in 2014. Cemented. Quincy Adeboyjo with the touchdown off Cyrus Jones’ helment in 2015. Cemented. There are no guarantees of greatness, only opportunities, and for the Rebels, Saturday is a golden opportunity. Lane has said it before, we’re not here to cover spreads. We’re here to win football games. So if you’ve got a Bama friend out there, go ahead and tell em, WE COMIN!
Now that we’re ready to go, I’m going to start by talking about this Alabama team. What exactly are they this year? They lost to Texas in Week 2 in a very competitive game, but it doesn’t look like what we’ve come to know as your typical Bama team. They obviously have talent all over the field, as they are always in the top 2 in the recruiting rankings, but what is their identity? I’m not sure they really even know that just yet. Jalen Milroe is clearly talented, but he’s also proven to be a total loose cannon. We’ve seen so many different quarterbacks come through Alabama that Saban has asked not to turn the ball over, make the routine throws, and let the running game/defense take care of the rest. Unfortunatley for Saban, Milroe is a liability to turn it over every time he touches the ball, even on the routine balls. To be fair, he’s also liable to throw a 75 yard bomb for a touchdown or break a 20 yard run, but that’s not the kind of quarterback play that Saban is used to. Milroe was 14-27 for 257 yards in the Texas game with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s, and the two interceptions were BAD. That’s not going to cut it. So without elite quarterback play, where does that leave them? It leaves them relying on the defense and running game now more than ever. I believe that can be enough for Alabama to win a lot of games this season, but is it enough to win this one? They have an extremley talented defense, and Milroe can help them be a great running team. The concern thus far with the running game has been the offensive line. Through 3 games, they’ve given up 12 sacks and are ranked 56th in rushing offense. Not to mention that during the Texas game, they had major issues snapping the ball in shotgun without the ball hitting the ground first! Yikes! This offensive line was supposed to be one of the strengths of this team coming into the season. I say all this, and I haven’t even mentioned the disaster that was last weekend. They beat South Florida in one of the uglier games I’ve ever watched on television. Alabama should have to pay ESPN back for the TV rights it was so ugly. They tried all their quarterbacks out, and Saban made it clear to all his critics that Jalen Milroe is the best option at quarterback on this team by a mile. This is what scares me though. Everybody is down on Alabama. Is this where they make us pay for doubting them? I try not to read too much into last weekend. I know it was ugly, but I watched the Texas game. I’ve followed the recruiting. I know how talented this team is, and what they COULD be. This team COULD put it all together and click at any moment. Nick Saban has lost 9 home games in his entire career at Alabama, and he’s won 103 of them. The concerns about this team give hope to Rebel fans, but it’s still Alabama, and it’s hard not to be just a little scared.
Now, let’s talk about the Rebs! We’ve seen flashes that this team can be great, but it hasn’t been without cause for concern. We’ve had some phenomenal quarters, but putting 4 in a row together has been a bit of an issue. While the final scores have come out pretty, we were in one possession games in the 4th quarter vs. both Tulane and Georgia Tech. We pulled away with the wins in both games, and were able to work out some kinks against some solid competition, but the time to put it all together is NOW. We’ve had our own struggles with the offensive line and our ability to run the ball — never something you want to struggle with against Alabama— but thankfully, Jaxson Dart has been exceptional. We’ve asked a lot of Dart in the last two games. We’ve been short staffed at wide reciever/tight end, our running game has been stalling, and Dart has taken over. He’s put the team on his back and been a huge part of our running game while also looking the part through the air. He has definatley elevated his game since last year, and looks to be the leader we need him to be. Jordan Wilkins and Dayton Wade have been great while we try and get everyone else back to full speed. The good news for Dart is that we’re expecting to have star wide receivers, Zakhari Franklin and Tre Harris back in the lineup, as well as starting tight end, Caden Prieskorn. How healthy are these guys going to be? How many snaps will they play? I don’t have these answers, but it sounds like they’ll be on the field with adrenaline pumping, and Jaxson needs them. Our defense has been okay in year one of former Alabama DC Pete Golding, but given up way too many explosive plays for me to be comfortable. If I had a crystal ball, I’d ask it, “Can we limit the big plays down the field on Saturday? How well can we stop the run this weekend in what I expect to be a heavy dose of read options? How much playing time does Sunterine Perkins get? Does he possibly spy Milroe?” I guess we’ll all have to find out these answers together. Possibly my biggest wonder of the game however is, what will Lane Kiffin do on his first 4th and 2 in field goal range? In years past, Lane has felt that we were unmatched and HAD TO take every chance we got. While I didn’t agree every time, I get it. This year however, it doesn’t feel that way. It’s a 7 point spread, which means if this were on a neutral field, it’d be closer to a field goal game. You’re facing a team with a really good defense and a struggling offense. Doesn’t that seem like a game where you just take the points on the road? Especially since our kicker, Caden Davis, has been lights out this year?!? Part of me already knows the answer to this question, but they pay him the big bucks to live and die with these decisions, so I’ll roll with whatever he does, even if I’m a nervous wreck in the process.
KEYS TO VICTORY:
1.) Jaxson Dart is going to have to play his A to A+ game. We’re going to ask him to run it into the teeth of this defense, and be nearly perfect through the air. Something along the lines of 300 yards passing with another 50 on the ground, and NO interceptions. I have full faith.
2.) Establish the Run - We’ve had our troubles running the ball traditionally, like we’ve done so well since Lane arrived, but that doesn’t mean we can’t flip that switch. We’ll need Judkins and Bently to step up in order to give ourselves a chance.
3.) Make Milroe Panic - I mentioned earlier that Alabama has given up 12 sacks on the year. Our defense has had 10 so far through 3 games. If we can get Milroe in passing situations, and get after him, that’s when he’s prone to panic and make mistakes. He threw some horrible interceptions in the Texas game, and we need him to do something similar on Saturday.
PREDICTION:
I’ve thought about this all week long. I’ve tried to visualize this game and see which direction I think it’s going to go. Is it low scoring? High scoring? Who gets out to an early lead? How many points do the Rebels need to win this thing? It may be cliche, but this game is going to come down to who wants it more. I think it comes down to the 4th quarter, everybody's tired, and the Rebel defense makes a stand.
OLE MISS 30
ALABAMA 26
PICK 5: (6-4) (60%)
I’ll give the disclaimer again: I’m an idiot. Gambling isn’t smart. Don’t do it. If you are going to do it, do it responsibly, and tail the PICK 5. Back to back winning weeks! Let’s Dive In!
Oklahoma -14 @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati comes off a loss to Miami Ohio, so this feels like it could be a trap, but I’m buying into this Oklahoma team in year 2 of Brent Venables and Jeff Lebby, and I don’t think 14 is enough. LET’S GO BOOMER SOONERS!
FL ST -2.5 @ Clemson
Florida State had a rough game last week at Boston College. Is it possible that they were looking ahead a little bit? This is a game they thought about all offseason, and I think the Noles roll in Clemson. GO NOLES!!
KENTUCKY -13.5 @ VANDERBILT
I bet on Vanderbilt last weekend, and I won’t do it again. This might as well be a neutral site field, and Nashville is an easy drive for the Wildcats. The Big Blue offense gets going and Vanderbilt stays Vanderbilt. GO CATS!!
Oregon State -3 @ Washington State
I actually like this Washington State team, but I like the Beavers more, and I like the number. GO BEAVERS!
Arkansas +17.5 @ LSU
LSU won by a million last week, and Arkansas lost to BYU. I’m not overreacting to either one of these results. This is a rivalry game, and I like the number. LSU wins, Arkansas covers. GO HOGS!
Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee State -3
Colorado State just had their most emotional game in program history losing to Deion and Colorado in 2OT. Now they have to travel to Murfreesboro and hear the roaring crowd of Floyd Stadium! Good Luck! GO BLUE RAIDERS!
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