We’re on to Week 5, and I think I know how you’re probably feeling. You spent all last week getting your hopes up, only to get your heart ripped out of your chest and stomped on, leaving you emotionally exhausted. That’s college football. We signed up for this, and it will take a lot out of you if you’re not ready for it. The reality of the situation is that we don’t have the luxury of feeling sorry for ourselves this week. We don’t play Vanderbilt or Mercer this weekend. No, no, no, we’ve got maybe the biggest game of our entire season RIGHT NOW. We have to get off the mat, forget about last week, and get prepared for another mental and physical dog fight. It’s not going to be easy, and someone will more than likely get hurt in the process, but somebody is going to walk away with an ENORMOUS win to springboard into the second half of their season. So, why not us?
LSU comes into Oxford with a 3-1 record and is ranked 13th in the country. Their only loss was on opening weekend to an excellent Florida State team, but they remain undefeated in SEC play. The Tigers came into this season with genuine national championship hopes, and after a close win vs. Arkansas last weekend, those hopes are still alive. A win in this game means they remain in control of their own destiny and have a chance to get back to Atlanta as well as the playoff. If they lose, however, playoff hopes start to disappear like an old ship in the Bermuda Triangle, and we all know LSU fans don’t like when that happens. For the Rebels, on the other hand, well, we NEED this one. We have to have it. We're coming back home after the loss to Bama, and we're in a must-win situation. Everyone knows how things spiraled last year after we lost to Alabama and LSU, and we can’t allow that to repeat. Lane is still looking for that really BIG signiture win in Oxford. He’s had some good ones, but none that would quite match this magnitude. In a rivalry game at home, this would be that. A win here turns uncertainty into confidence. Win here, and all is well. We’re right back on track. A loss, and we’re in real trouble. If you ask me, Ole Miss needs to WIN, while LSU needs to not lose. No matter how you look at it, though, backs are against the wall for both teams, and it’s fight or flight time in Oxford, Mississippi.
The talk on the street is that LSU is a great team that’s been explosive on offense but has serious concerns on defense, specifically in the secondary. So one would think that the Rebels just need to air it out and take advantage of said vulnerable secondary. That’s the simple part. The challenging part is, can this offensive line give Jaxson Dart the time he needs to do so? Can they give the receivers enough time to get open? They’ve struggled so far in that category this season, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Part 2 of that equation is, how do we slow down that explosive offense? They do just about everything well. Jayden Daniels has been an improved version of what he was last year, which was fantastic, and he hasn’t made many mistakes. Not to mention, he’s got an arsenal of weapons. Malik Neighbors and Brian Thomas Jr. have been on an absolute tear, and Mason Taylor is just starting to get healthy. Our defense played well last weekend, and they certainly have a chance to muck things up for this offense that has yet to play a true road game, but while I believe in them, they’ve got their hands full.
KEYS TO VICTORY: The goal of the game is to score more points than the other team. We know our defense isn’t shutting this team out, so we need to score a lot of points, and here’s how that has to happen: 1.) O-Line steps up - As we mentioned above, it all starts here. The running game can’t get going if this doesn’t happen. The LSU secondary can’t be exposed if this doesn’t happen. I could just stop here, because if this doesn't happen, nothing else matters. 2.) REDZONE TOUCHDOWNS - I mentioned the thought-provoking goal this week, which is to score more points than the other team. We can’t afford to settle for many field goals if we’re going to outscore this team. Can we get down close and punch it in? We have to. 3.) Dart plays ball - A common theme has been to ask a lot out of our quarterback, Jaxson Dart. We need you to help out the running game, extend plays with your legs, throw for 300 yards, and don’t take sacks or turn the ball over. As long as you do that, we should be good. Oh, and by the way, most of your receivers are banged up. It may not be fair, but that’s what we need out of #2, especially if we continue to struggle to run the ball. SCORE PREDICTION: I hope it doesn’t sound like I’m down on the Rebs this week. I’m not. Am I frustrated? Slightly. Nervous? Almost always. Down? Not even close. We played a really tough game on the road last week and came up short. That’s football. We also did a lot of things right and learned a lot about ourselves. We come home with a huge opportunity to prove who we are, and I think we find a way to come away with the win here. LSU 30 Ole Miss 34 PICK 5 (10-6) (62.5%) The Pick 5 was generous last week and gave away a free extra winner. I hope everyone was able to cash in. This is usually the part where I give the disclaimer, but at this point, it would be irresponsible not to take these picks, and I like the board. Let’s dive in. Alabama -14.5 @ Mississippi State I think the Tide has found something, and I don’t see any way Mississippi State keeps this one close. One week after they ripped my heart out, and I’m after the blood money. Notre Dame -5.5 @ Duke I’m nervous about this one, but I think Notre Dame will respond after their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. Sam Hartman has a big game, and they find a way to cover. GO IRISH! Houston @ Texas Tech -8 It’s been a rough start to the year for the Red Raiders. The loss to Wyoming, then Oregon, and then the loss again last weekend on the road at West Virginia. The name of the game is buy low, and sell high. Give me the Red Raiders coming back home to Lubbock. Guns Up! Florida @ Kentucky -1 This should probably be a stay away game, but I’m not going to do it. I'm really proud of Florida for covering for me against the Vols, I really am, but I don’t think Graham Mertz has what it takes to go on the road and steal this one. Not this week. GO CATS! Kansas @ Texas -16.5 Last but not least, I like Texas to keep the foot on the pedal against Kansas. In Austin, I think this one gets ugly early. Hook EM!
Comments